Toronto Maple Leafs in the NHL Playoffs: Will They Make a Comeback?

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This postseason has been quite disappointing for the franchise, which has found itself down 3-1 in the series against the Boston Bruins. The setback from Saturday’s 3-1 loss at home against their Massachusetts rivals has put the Leafs in a very challenging position.Toronto Maple Leafs playoff chances To understand the situation better, we used ChampsorChumps.com to analyze how frequently teams manage to win a series after trailing 3-1 in a best-of-seven format during NHL playoffs. From reviewing the results of teams in the first round over the last five years, we discovered that only four out of 15 teams succeeded in overcoming such a deficit.

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We translated their opportunities into the types of odds that you might see on betting platforms.

NHL Teams Down 3-1 In Past 5 Years

Won Series Lost Series
27% (+270 odds) 73% (-270 odds)

Since 2017, Toronto has not been able to advance beyond the second round in any of its eight consecutive playoff appearances, highlighting the immense pressure that comes with being part of such a high-stakes franchise.Ontario sportsbook apps .

As we approach Tuesday’s Game 5 between the Boston and Toronto teams, deereplanet.com utilized data from Champs or Chumps to calculate the odds of the Maple Leafs completing a comeback by winning three consecutive games to clinch a first-round series victory over the Bruins. Recent statistics suggest this occurs approximately 25% of the time. However, a broader historical view of the NHL reveals a far grimmer picture.

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The Maple Leafs are in a precarious position after losing three of their first four games against the Bruins. Historically, only 9.5% of teams that found themselves in a 3-1 series deficit (32 out of 338 teams) have managed to win the series. This percentage rises to 21.3% for teams that win Game 5 after facing such a deficit.

Won Series Overall Won Series After Game 5 Win
9.5% (+950 odds) 21.3% (+370 odds)

See ourToronto Maple Leafs Stanley Cup odds page as well.

Can Toronto Turn Tables On Boston?

It's interesting to note that the current betting odds show Toronto as a 1.5-goal underdog, with the Leafs sitting at +140 compared to Boston's -165. The sportsbook provides +300 odds suggesting the Leafs could lose the series by a margin of less than 1.5 games.

The challenge for redemption begins in earnest at 7 p.m. local time on Tuesday, with Toronto taking on Boston at TD Garden. This matchup features two teams that finished second and third in the Atlantic Division this season, setting the stage for yet another playoff clash between these historic rivals in the opening round of the 2024 NHL playoffs.Bet365 Ontario Sportsbook Despite the difficult circumstances, it’s noteworthy that Toronto’s only victory in this series occurred in Boston, where they triumphed over the Bruins 3-2 on April 22. This win could instill confidence in Toronto, and perhaps among their supporters who have placed bets on the team, that they possess the capability to stage an impressive comeback on Tuesday evening.

In their franchise's history, the Leafs have found themselves down 3-1 in best-of-seven series 17 times. Remarkably, they’ve only managed to turn it around once, during the Stanley Cup final in 1942, when they lost the first three matches to the Detroit Red Wings but rallied to win four consecutive games to claim the championship. On six occasions, they’ve fought back by winning Game 5, forcing a sixth game. For instance, they secured the win against Boston in 2013 and again in 2018 after losing the first four, but ultimately fell short in Game 7 on both occasions.

The odds seem heavily stacked against Coach Sheldon Keefe’s squad. The Maple Leafs face a monumental challenge to secure three straight wins and eliminate the Bruins, but that’s the essence of competitive sports.Stanley Cup odds Excellent Betting Lines Thanks to Experienced Oddsmakers, Quick Cash-out Options, and Bet Adjustment Features

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