Author
Christopher Boan serves as a sports betting journalist with deereplanet.com and boasts over a decade of experience covering sports and betting across Canada and the United States.
Buffalo Bills' Projected Wins for 2025: Analysis of Teams with a 12.5 Win Expectation
Over the past several years, the Buffalo Bills have enjoyed one of their most fruitful periods, but there's been one crucial element missing: participation in the Super Bowl. Head Coach Sean McDermott and his team are optimistic that 2025 will bring that opportunity, a sentiment echoed by many fans and bettors from Canada.Ontario sportsbook apps and cheer for the Bills.
During Coach McDermott's time in Buffalo, the team has achieved a remarkable win rate of .640 (73 victories against 41 losses) and has qualified for the playoffs six times out of seven seasons. However, the Bills have faced early exits in the AFC Divisional Round for three consecutive years, with their most notable achievement being a trip to the AFC Championship Game in 2020.
deereplanet.com used theDraftKings Ontario Sportsbook As we examined the current win projection for the upcoming NFL season, we found that the Bills' over/under is established at 12.5 victories (+130 for the over). We also reviewed data from SportsReference.com about every team that has had a 12.5 win total in the last decade and analyzed their results.
Performance Analysis of NFL Teams with a 10.5 Win Total
Situation |
Number of Teams |
Percentage* |
Under 12.5 Wins |
19 of 35 |
54.3% |
Over 12.5 Wins |
16 of 35 |
45.7% |
Make NFL Playoffs |
22 of 35 |
62.9% |
Make Divisional Round |
19 of 35 |
54.3% |
Make Conference Championship |
12 of 35 |
34.3% |
Make Super Bowl |
6 of 35 |
17.1% |
Win Super Bowl |
5 of 35 |
14.3% |
*Rounded to nearest whole number
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How Teams Fared With 12.5 Win Lines
Since 2013, we discovered that 35 teams entered a season with a win total line above or below 12.5. Out of these, 19 (54.3%) achieved 11 or more victories, thus allowing bettors to profit on the over. Furthermore, 22 of these teams (62.9%) reached the playoffs, including five that ultimately won the Super Bowl.
The five championship teams include the New England Patriots in both 2014 and 2016, the Kansas City Chiefs in 2019 and 2022, and the Los Angeles Rams of 2021.
In recent seasons, the Kansas City Chiefs have posed a significant hurdle for the Bills and their supporters.Ontario sports betting The Chiefs eliminated the Bills from playoff contention in the 2020, 2021, and 2023 seasons.
A total of six teams (17.1%) have qualified for the Super Bowl in seasons where their win total was set over or under 10.5, while 12 teams (34.3%) advanced to the NFL Conference Championship round.
2024 Buffalo Bills Season Prospects
For the Bills, reaching the Super Bowl again would represent a long-awaited redemption, especially after their four consecutive losses in the championship game from 1990 to 1993.Caesars Ontario Sportsbook Currently, the odds for the Bills to finally capture the Vince Lombardi Trophy stand at +1600.
To achieve their goal, McDermott and his team will need to maintain their performance throughout the season, starting witha highly anticipated match at home against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens on September 7. .
USA Today photo by Gregory Fisher
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